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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 16-W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model