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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 32

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model