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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 8

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 25-K.Monangai right guard to MIN 6 for 2 yards (95-C.Banks; 51-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model