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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 86

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to MIN 36, Center-45-B.Gardner, downed by CHI-38-S.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.08 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 86, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model