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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 57

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-45-B.Gardner, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model