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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 11-C.Wentz right guard to CHI 31 for 2 yards (90-N.Gallimore).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.75 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model