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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model