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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-1 HC Mike McCarthy
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NE Home

New England Patriots

1-1 HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PIT
18.9%
NE
81.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (PIT): -0.088 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE on 4 more days rest than PIT

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 19 12–26
–
NE 26 19–33
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

PIT

Joey Porter Jr. CB Out Back
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Foot
Troy Fautanu T Questionable Ankle

NE

Carlton Davis III CB Out Neck
Dametrious Crownover T Out Knee
Dre'Mont Jones LB Questionable Foot
Ben Brown C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 3
–
NE 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 TD NE (8:29) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson left guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 14:18 FG NE (14:18) 8-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PIT 0 – NE 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG PIT (:05) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. PIT 3 – NE 10
  • Q3 00:46 FG NE (:46) 8-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PIT 3 – NE 13
  • Q4 13:46 TD NE (13:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 21 for -9 yards (90-C.Barmore). FUMBLES (90-C.Barmore) [90-C.Barmore], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at PIT 19. 91-E.Ponder for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – NE 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to NE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 9 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NE 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to PIT 49 for 19 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 60%

    (4:15) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (14:18) 8-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:12) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to PIT 41 for 2 yards (14-R.Spillane).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:16) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 28 for 17 yards (48-N.Obiazor).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 44%

    (1:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to PIT 35, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-48-N.Obiazor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (3:55) 8-A.Borregales 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:22) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%

    (:46) 8-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to NE 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 40 for 11 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

    (10:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 21 for 4 yards (21-K.Prunty).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:09) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NE 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →