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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 48

New England Patriots 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model