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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 12

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 8-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model