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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NE 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.19 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP