Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 10

(9:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model