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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 65

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 28 for 17 yards (48-N.Obiazor).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.21 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model