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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.56 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP