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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP