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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.29 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model