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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 29

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 8-A.Borregales 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP