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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(12:12) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to PIT 41 for 2 yards (14-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model