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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NE 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to PIT 49 for 19 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model