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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 27

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:46) 8-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model