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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 63

New England Patriots 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 21 for 4 yards (21-K.Prunty).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.45 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model