Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to NE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 9 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model