Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 80

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to PIT 35, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-48-N.Obiazor.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.68 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model