Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 20

(12:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to NE 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 40 for 11 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.78 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model