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Las Vegas Raiders

2-0 HC Klint Kubliak
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Los Angeles Chargers

0-2 HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 16:05 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LV
30.6%
LAC
69.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.034 vs Kirk Cousins (LV) -0.014 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LV 20 13–27
–
LAC 24 17–31
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

LV

Darien Porter CB Out Foot
Brock Bowers TE Doubtful Knee
Aidan O'Connell QB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

LAC

Trey Pipkins T Out Knee
Elijah Molden S Out Hamstring
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Abdomen
Ladd McConkey WR Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 26
–
LAC 14

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:57 TD LV (11:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-T.Tucker for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – LAC 0
  • Q2 05:30 TD LAC (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – LAC 6
  • Q2 00:08 FG LV (:08) 14-M.Gay 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – LAC 7
  • Q3 09:53 TD LAC (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – LAC 13
  • Q3 03:59 TD LV (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-C.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – LAC 14
  • Q4 03:03 TD LV (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 23 – LAC 14
  • Q4 01:46 SAF LV (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. LV 26 – LAC 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 63%

    (11:44) 11-C.Dicker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:41) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-87-G.Jennings.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:10) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (:40) Direct snap to 2-A.Jeanty. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 23-T.Jefferson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 49, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:01) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:42) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (:08) 14-M.Gay 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:41) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 36 for 1 yard (43-T.Dye).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:40) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Benson to LV 31 for 16 yards (30-A.Ingold).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (12:34) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-25-D.Luter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%

    (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young.

    See the full breakdown →