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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) Direct snap to 2-A.Jeanty. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 23-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.25 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model