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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 9 at the 41
Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(:08) 14-M.Gay 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The Three Options
GO
+0.42 EP
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.29 EP
- 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.36 EP
KICK
+1.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
- 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
