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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:42) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model