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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-25-D.Luter.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model