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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.32 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP