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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 40

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.13 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP