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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model