Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(1:40) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Benson to LV 31 for 16 yards (30-A.Ingold).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model