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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.08 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model