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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 11-C.Dicker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.93 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP