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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model