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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP