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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:41) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 36 for 1 yard (43-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model