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Best Bets — Week 16

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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CLE @

BAL

Model: BAL 72.8% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

NE @

NYJ

Model: NE 70.9% · strong edge

NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

NYG @

DET

Model: DET 67.3% · clear edge

QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.232 vs J.J. McCarthy (NYG) -0.130 EPA/dropback

TEN @

Model: LV 66.4% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

ARI @

Model: NO 65.6% · clear edge

NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

CAR @

PIT

Model: PIT 62.5% · clear edge

Aaron Rodgers (PIT): -0.105 EPA/dropback in prior starts