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Best Bets — Week 16

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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NE @

NYJ

Model: NE 78.2% · strong edge

NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

CLE @

BAL

Model: BAL 78.1% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

CAR @

PIT

Model: PIT 64.7% · clear edge

CAR offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

TEN @

Model: LV 62.2% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)