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Detroit Lions

1-1 HC Dan Campbell
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Buffalo Bills

2-0 HC Sean McDermott
Thursday 2026-09-17 · 20:15 ET Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

DET
28.1%
BUF
71.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.154 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.119 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DET 22 15–29
–
BUF 27 20–34
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

DET

Christian Mahogany G Out Hip
Blake Miller T Out Knee
D.J. Reed CB Questionable Foot

BUF

Ty Johnson RB Questionable Hamstring
Cole Bishop S Questionable Knee
T.J. Sanders DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 31
–
BUF 41

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 TD BUF (9:13) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 03:49 TD BUF (3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard]. DET 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 11:52 TD BUF (11:52) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BUF 20
  • Q2 05:07 TD DET (5:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – BUF 21
  • Q2 02:56 TD BUF (2:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – BUF 27
  • Q2 00:01 FG DET (:01) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – BUF 27
  • Q3 09:31 TD DET (9:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – BUF 27
  • Q3 01:13 TD BUF (1:13) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – BUF 33
  • Q4 10:57 TD DET (10:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – BUF 34
  • Q4 02:53 TD BUF (2:53) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – BUF 40
  • Q4 01:48 TD DET (1:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna]. DET 30 – BUF 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:16) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to BUF 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:51) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to BUF 7, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 18 for 11 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 17-T.Martin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:46) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to DET 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 60%

    (11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards (37-J.Hancock).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (8:32) 39-T.Doman punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:36) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to BUF 39, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-G.Dortch ran ob at BUF 39 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 18 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa pushed ob at DET 44 for 20 yards (47-C.Benford).

    See the full breakdown →