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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 40

Detroit Lions 10 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards (37-J.Hancock).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.74 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model