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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 27 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to DET 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.41 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model