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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 34 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 39-T.Doman punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model