Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 90

Detroit Lions 24 – Buffalo Bills 34

(7:36) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to BUF 39, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-G.Dortch ran ob at BUF 39 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.84 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -5.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model