Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 69

Detroit Lions 7 – Buffalo Bills 27

(1:51) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to BUF 7, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 18 for 11 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 17-T.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.33 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model