Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 70

Detroit Lions 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(7:16) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to BUF 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.92 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model