Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 76

Detroit Lions 24 – Buffalo Bills 41

(2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa pushed ob at DET 44 for 20 yards (47-C.Benford).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.51 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EP