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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

0-3 HC Jim Harbaugh
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

3-0 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

LAC
18.0%
BUF
82.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.165 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.053 EPA/dropback
  • LAC defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than LAC

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 18 11–25
–
BUF 26 19–33
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

LAC

Dalvin Tomlinson DT Out Hamstring
Trey Pipkins T Out Knee
Kayode Awosika G Out Fibula
Elijah Molden S Out Hamstring
Charlie Kolar TE Out Forearm
Brenen Thompson WR Out Quadricep
Trey Lance QB Questionable Groin
Rodney Shelley CB Questionable Hamstring

BUF

Jordan Hancock CB Out Hamstring
T.J. Sanders DE Out Illness
DJ Moore WR Questionable Shoulder
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Hip
Keon Coleman WR Questionable Ankle
Ar'maj Reed-Adams G Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 16
–
BUF 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:37 TD LAC (10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 34-K.Mitchell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 00:37 FG LAC (:37) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – BUF 0
  • Q2 06:05 FG BUF (6:05) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. LAC 10 – BUF 3
  • Q2 00:19 TD BUF (:19) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, declined. LAC 10 – BUF 9
  • Q3 06:15 FG LAC (6:15) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 13 – BUF 10
  • Q4 07:37 TD BUF (7:37) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – BUF 16
  • Q4 03:16 TD BUF (3:16) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – BUF 23
  • Q4 01:59 FG LAC (1:59) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 16 – BUF 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to BUF 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 34 for 8 yards (32-K.Williamson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:29) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 44 for 1 yard (3-D.James).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (:37) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 83%

    (10:26) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (6:05) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:15) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 99%

    (6:15) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:44) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%

    (11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 28-K.Vidal [91-E.Oliver].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (1:59) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →