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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP