4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:37) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP